· Analysis updated 08:31 UTC
ASA Aarhus vs Randers FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for ASA Aarhus and 1.53 for Randers FC, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives ASA Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASA Aarhus home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Randers FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASA Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for ASA Aarhus and 1.53 for Randers FC, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
ASA Aarhus
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holbæk B&I · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brønshøj · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Næsby · 1-0 (W)
Randers FC
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonderjyske · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vendsyssel FF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.