Yishunsin Stadium · Referee H. Kim · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Asan Mugunghwa vs Cheongju Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.13 for Cheongju, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Asan Mugunghwa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Asan Mugunghwa win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asan Mugunghwa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cheongju away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Asan Mugunghwa
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 0-1 (L)
Cheongju
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Asan Mugunghwa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Seoul E-Land FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hwaseong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T07:30:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 0-0 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2025-10-04T07:30:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 0-0 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2025-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 2-0 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2025-04-06T07:30:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 3-1 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2024-11-09T05:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 4-1 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2024-07-24T10:30:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 3-0 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2024-03-30T05:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 4-1 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2023-11-11T07:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 0-1 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2023-10-14T07:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 3-2 Cheongju (K League 2)
- 2023-04-18T10:00:00.000Z · Asan Mugunghwa 4-0 Cheongju (K League 2)
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Asan Mugunghwa win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.