Yishunsin Stadium · Analysis updated 19:56 UTC
Asan Mugunghwa vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.67 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Daejeon Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Daejeon Citizen win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asan Mugunghwa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Daejeon Citizen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Daejeon Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.67 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 71.1% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.90 | 47.9% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 2.16 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 20.9% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.70 | 53.2% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 78.2% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.9% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 28.9% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.1% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 24.3% | 4.12 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Asan Mugunghwa
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 0-1 (L)
Daejeon Citizen
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Daejeon Citizen win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.