Yishunsin Stadium · Analysis updated 18:09 UTC
Asan Mugunghwa vs Siheung Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 2.00 for Siheung Citizen, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Asan Mugunghwa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asan Mugunghwa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siheung Citizen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asan Mugunghwa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 2.00 for Siheung Citizen, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Asan Mugunghwa
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 0-1 (L)
Siheung Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Changwon City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pocheon · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.