· Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Åsane II vs Varegg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Åsane II and 2.03 for Varegg, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Åsane II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Åsane II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varegg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Åsane II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Åsane II and 2.03 for Varegg, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–25.0%
Recent form
Åsane II
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fana · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-2 (L)
Varegg
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.