Baba Yara Stadium · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Asante Kotoko and 0.97 for Heart of Lions, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Asante Kotoko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Asante Kotoko win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asante Kotoko home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart of Lions away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asante Kotoko to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Asante Kotoko and 0.97 for Heart of Lions, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Asante Kotoko
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aduana Stars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samartex · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart of Lions · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Debibi United · 2-2 (D)
Heart of Lions
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohoe United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samartex · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nations · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aduana Stars · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Karela | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vision | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Debibi United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Asante Kotoko win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.