· Analysis updated 20:01 UTC
ASC Dortmund vs Victoria Clarholz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.94 expected goals for ASC Dortmund and 1.76 for Victoria Clarholz, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives ASC Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
ASC Dortmund win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.94 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASC Dortmund home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASC Dortmund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 17% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.94 goals for ASC Dortmund and 1.76 for Victoria Clarholz, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 4–15.0%
Recent form
ASC Dortmund
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Erkenschwick · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 3-3 (D)
Victoria Clarholz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ASC Dortmund win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.