· Analysis updated 16:35 UTC
Ascoli U19 vs Benevento U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ascoli U19 and 3.00 for Benevento U19, a combined total of 4.31. That distribution gives Benevento U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benevento U19 win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ascoli U19 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benevento U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benevento U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 14% / 15% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Ascoli U19 and 3.00 for Benevento U19, a combined 4.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.1%
- 0–36.0%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Ascoli U19
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Napoli U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bari U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Spezia U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Latina U19 · 4-1 (W)
Benevento U19
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Avellino U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Monopoli U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Pescara U19 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Sampdoria U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| 3 | Vicenza U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Cremonese U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | Venezia U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Monopoli U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Udinese U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Pescara U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Padova U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Avellino U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Lecco U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Latina U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Cittadella U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Brescia U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Mantova U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Spezia U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Modena U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Frosinone U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Ascoli U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 15 | Sudtirol U19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Reggiana U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benevento U19 win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.