Ascot Racecourse · Analysis updated 20:24 UTC
Ascot United vs Horndean Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ascot United and 1.20 for Horndean, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Ascot United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ascot United win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ascot United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Horndean away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Ascot United
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Margate · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitan Police · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raynes Park Vale · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horndean · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartley Wintney · 1-1 (D)
Horndean
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Littlehampton Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedfont Sports · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascot United · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Portchester · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Ascot United 5-2 Horndean (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Ascot United 2-0 Horndean (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2025-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · Ascot United 3-4 Horndean (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2024-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Ascot United 3-2 Horndean (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2023-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Ascot United 3-2 Horndean (FA Trophy)
Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leatherhead | 42 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 96 |
| 2 | Westfield (Surrey) | 42 | 26 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 84 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 42 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 48 | 81 |
| 4 | Moneyfields | 42 | 25 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 80 |
| 5 | AFC Portchester | 42 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 73 |
| 6 | Southall | 42 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 65 |
| 7 | Egham Town | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 64 |
| 9 | Hayes & Yeading United | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | -16 | 61 |
| 10 | South Park | 42 | 17 | 8 | 17 | -1 | 59 |
| 11 | Bognor Regis Town | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 57 |
| 12 | Hartley Wintney | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 56 |
| 13 | Kingstonian | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 56 |
| 14 | Raynes Park Vale | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 53 |
| 15 | Bedfont Sports | 42 | 13 | 11 | 18 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Ascot United | 42 | 15 | 4 | 23 | -4 | 49 |
| 17 | Hendon | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | -12 | 48 |
| 18 | Binfield | 42 | 14 | 6 | 22 | -13 | 48 |
| 19 | Littlehampton Town | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | -23 | 46 |
| 20 | Metropolitan Police | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | -25 | 44 |
| 21 | Horndean | 42 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -64 | 31 |
| 22 | Fareham Town | 42 | 6 | 7 | 29 | -46 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ascot United win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.