England · Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central · Isthmian South Central - 4214:00

2 – 3

Saturday, 25 April 2026

Ascot Racecourse · Analysis updated 12:21 UTC

Ascot United vs Metropolitan Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Ascot United and 1.49 for Metropolitan Police, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Ascot United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ascot United win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.33 – 1.49

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ascot United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ascot United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Ascot United and 1.49 for Metropolitan Police, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Ascot United win56%

Draw20%

Metropolitan Police win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.9%
1–17.6%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
2–05.9%

Recent form

Ascot United

2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Margate · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitan Police · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raynes Park Vale · 4-1 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horndean · 5-2 (W)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartley Wintney · 1-1 (D)

Metropolitan Police

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leatherhead	42	30	6	6	59	96
2	Westfield (Surrey)	42	26	6	10	35	84
3	Hanworth Villa	42	23	12	7	48	81
4	Moneyfields	42	25	5	12	32	80
5	AFC Portchester	42	22	7	13	27	73
6	Southall	42	18	11	13	10	65
7	Egham Town	42	17	13	12	15	64
8	Harrow Borough	42	18	10	14	0	64
9	Hayes & Yeading United	42	18	7	17	-16	61
10	South Park	42	17	8	17	-1	59
11	Bognor Regis Town	42	16	9	17	0	57
12	Hartley Wintney	42	15	11	16	0	56
13	Kingstonian	42	16	8	18	-7	56
14	Raynes Park Vale	42	14	11	17	-9	53
15	Bedfont Sports	42	13	11	18	-6	50
16	Ascot United	42	15	4	23	-4	49
17	Hendon	42	12	12	18	-12	48
18	Binfield	42	14	6	22	-13	48
19	Littlehampton Town	42	12	10	20	-23	46
20	Metropolitan Police	42	12	8	22	-25	44
21	Horndean	42	7	10	25	-64	31
22	Fareham Town	42	6	7	29	-46	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ascot United win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.