· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for ASEC Mimosas and 1.35 for Maghreb Fès, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Maghreb Fès the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASEC Mimosas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maghreb Fès away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maghreb Fès to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for ASEC Mimosas and 1.35 for Maghreb Fès, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
ASEC Mimosas
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maghreb Fès · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Maghreb Fès · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stella · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Yamoussoukro · 0-1 (L)
Maghreb Fès
- 2026-10-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Raja Casablanca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hassania Agadir · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Khemis Zemamra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rahimo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahimo · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.