· Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Aserri FC vs AD Cofutpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Aserri FC and 0.84 for AD Cofutpa, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Aserri FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aserri FC win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aserri FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AD Cofutpa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aserri FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Aserri FC and 0.84 for AD Cofutpa, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 53.5% vs market 44.0%, edge +9.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.0% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +9.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 76.2% | 1.31 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.0% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.7% | 23.8% | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.2% | 58.0% | 1.72 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 42.8% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -9.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aserri FC
- 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Grecia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Quepos Cambute · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 1-1 (D)
AD Cofutpa
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Sarchí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Grecia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quepos Cambute · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aserri FC win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.