· Analysis updated 21:26 UTC
Aserri FC vs Cariari Pococi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Aserri FC and 1.14 for Cariari Pococi, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Aserri FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aserri FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cariari Pococi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Aserri FC
- 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Grecia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Quepos Cambute · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ADR Jicaral · 1-1 (D)
Cariari Pococi
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-21T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Uruguay · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Futbol Consultants Moravia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 2-2 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2026-03-19T20:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 2-2 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-11-16T19:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 0-3 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 0-1 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-04-02T20:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 1-2 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2025-02-19T21:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 3-1 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2024-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 2-1 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2024-09-04T20:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 0-2 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
- 2024-03-13T21:00:00.000Z · Aserri FC 0-1 Cariari Pococi (Liga de Ascenso)
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.