· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Aşgabat vs Şagadam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Aşgabat and 1.70 for Şagadam, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Aşgabat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aşgabat home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Şagadam away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Aşgabat
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merw · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nebitci · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 1-2 (L)
Şagadam
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 1-0 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2026-05-20T12:15:00.000Z · Aşgabat 2-0 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2026-04-11T09:30:00.000Z · Aşgabat 1-3 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 1-2 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-09-22T11:45:00.000Z · Aşgabat 0-1 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-05-03T12:30:00.000Z · Aşgabat 0-1 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-03-10T10:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 2-3 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 0-0 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-08-24T13:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 1-3 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-05-07T12:00:00.000Z · Aşgabat 1-0 Şagadam (Ýokary Liga)
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.