· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Ashdod vs Ironi Modi'in Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Ashdod and 0.99 for Ironi Modi'in, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Ashdod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ashdod win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ashdod home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ironi Modi'in away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ashdod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Ashdod and 0.99 for Ironi Modi'in, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Ashdod
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Modi'in · 3-1 (W)
Ironi Modi'in
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Afula · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashdod · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-10T07:00:00.000Z · Ashdod 1-3 Ironi Modi'in (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ashdod win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.