Ashdod vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Ashdod and 0.61 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Ashdod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ashdod win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ashdod home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Herzliya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ashdod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 21% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Ashdod and 0.61 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ashdod win68%

Draw21%

Maccabi Herzliya win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.4%
2–014.6%
1–19.4%
3–09.3%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Ashdod

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Modi'in · 3-1 (W)

Maccabi Herzliya

2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Leumit table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ashdod	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	8	3	0	17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	6	1	4	8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	5	2	4	6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	4	1	6	1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	4	0	7	-7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	2	5	4	-2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	2	3	6	-5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	3	0	8	-14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	0	1	10	-28	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ashdod win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.