Ashington AFC vs Heaton Stannington Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ashington AFC and 1.50 for Heaton Stannington, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Heaton Stannington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heaton Stannington win

46.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ashington AFC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heaton Stannington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Ashington AFC and 1.50 for Heaton Stannington, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Ashington AFC win28%

Draw26%

Heaton Stannington win47%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–111.2%
1–29.2%
0–28.4%
1–08.2%

Recent form

Ashington AFC

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guisborough Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs West Auckland Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln United · 6-3 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighouse Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matlock Town · 0-5 (L)

Heaton Stannington

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Knaresborough Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wythenshawe Amateurs · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basford United · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Northern East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	42	33	6	3	102	105
2	Matlock Town	42	28	4	10	49	88
3	AFC Emley	42	22	11	9	37	77
4	Dunston UTS	42	22	10	10	19	76
5	Bradford (Park Avenue)	42	21	12	9	33	75
6	Pontefract Collieries	42	21	11	10	14	74
7	Heaton Stannington	42	17	10	15	2	61
8	Bridlington Town	42	16	11	15	8	59
9	Garforth Town	42	16	10	16	15	58
10	Consett	42	16	10	16	8	58
11	North Ferriby	42	13	19	10	7	58
12	Hallam	42	13	14	15	-7	53
13	Lincoln United	42	14	11	17	-20	53
14	Ashington AFC	42	14	9	19	-32	51
15	Grimsby Borough	42	13	10	19	-29	49
16	Blyth Spartans	42	13	8	21	-6	47
17	Silsden	42	10	14	18	-22	44
18	Ossett United	42	10	12	20	-13	42
19	Bishop Auckland	42	12	5	25	-27	41
20	Blyth Town	42	12	5	25	-34	41
21	Newton Aycliffe	42	9	9	24	-37	36
22	Brighouse Town	42	8	7	27	-67	31

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heaton Stannington win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.