· Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
ASIL Lysi vs Spartakos Kitiou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for ASIL Lysi and 1.50 for Spartakos Kitiou, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives ASIL Lysi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASIL Lysi home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartakos Kitiou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASIL Lysi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for ASIL Lysi and 1.50 for Spartakos Kitiou, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
ASIL Lysi
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akritas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayia Napa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MEAP Nisou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 2-6 (L)
Spartakos Kitiou
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs MEAP Nisou · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polemidion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahironas / Onisilos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halkanoras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs APEA · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.