St. François Xavier Stadium · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
ASPL 2000 vs Cercle de Joachim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for ASPL 2000 and 1.73 for Cercle de Joachim, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Cercle de Joachim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cercle de Joachim win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASPL 2000 home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cercle de Joachim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for ASPL 2000 and 1.73 for Cercle de Joachim, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
ASPL 2000
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galaxy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplemousses · 1-3 (L)
Cercle de Joachim
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cercle de Joachim win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.