St. François Xavier Stadium · Analysis updated 23:44 UTC
ASPL 2000 vs Pamplemousses Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for ASPL 2000 and 1.28 for Pamplemousses, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives ASPL 2000 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASPL 2000 home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASPL 2000 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for ASPL 2000 and 1.28 for Pamplemousses, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
ASPL 2000
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galaxy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplemousses · 1-3 (L)
Pamplemousses
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.