· Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Assisense vs José Bonifácio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Assisense and 1.45 for José Bonifácio, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives José Bonifácio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Assisense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
José Bonifácio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates José Bonifácio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Assisense and 1.45 for José Bonifácio, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Assisense
- 2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Matonense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Matonense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Riopretano · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs José Bonifácio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fé FC · 4-2 (W)
José Bonifácio
- 2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs America SP · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs America SP · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manthiqueira · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manthiqueira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs America SP · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · Assisense 0-1 José Bonifácio (Paulista Série B)
- 2026-05-08T23:00:00.000Z · Assisense 2-2 José Bonifácio (Paulista Série B)
Paulista Série B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Independente SP | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Matonense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Santacruzense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Sao Carlos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Mogi Mirim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Grêmio Catanduvense | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -32 | 0 |
| 1 | Flamengo SP | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Guarulhos | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Gremio Osasco Audax | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Sporting Paulinense | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 5 | Paulínia FU | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 6 | Votoraty | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Itaquá Athletico Clube | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Maua | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Mauaense | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Uniao Mogi | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Manthiqueira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 6 | Barcelona EC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.