· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Asteras Kard. vs Ermis Exochi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Asteras Kard. and 1.56 for Ermis Exochi, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Ermis Exochi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asteras Kard. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ermis Exochi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ermis Exochi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Asteras Kard. and 1.56 for Ermis Exochi, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Asteras Kard.
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akrites Sykeon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eordaikos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Evosmou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarakinos · 1-6 (L)
Ermis Exochi
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alexandreia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Mpam | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Akrites Sykeon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Agiou Nikolaou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Panedessaikos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Polykastrou | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.