· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Asteras Tripolis II vs Pyrgos 1968 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis II and 0.66 for Pyrgos 1968, a combined total of 1.56. That distribution gives Asteras Tripolis II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.9% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pyrgos 1968 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asteras Tripolis II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 35% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Asteras Tripolis II and 0.66 for Pyrgos 1968, a combined 1.56 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 21% and both teams to score at 29%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.0%
- 1–019.0%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Asteras Tripolis II
Pyrgos 1968
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Panionios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ellas Syros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Larisa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Panionios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kallithea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Panthrakikos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Panserraikos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Pyrgos 1968 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Zakynthos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.