Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium · Referee Anastasios Papapetrou, Greece · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.48 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.95 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.48 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asteras Tripolis home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–216.8%
- 0–310.9%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Asteras Tripolis
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadiakos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atromitos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2026-01-24T17:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2025-02-23T17:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2024-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2024-02-04T15:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 2-4 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2023-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-2 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2022-11-06T18:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
- 2022-03-06T17:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-2 AEK Athens FC (Super League 1)
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.