Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium · Referee A. Tzilos · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.15 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Aris Thessalonikis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asteras Tripolis home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aris Thessalonikis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 29% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.15 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–010.2%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Asteras Tripolis
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)
Aris Thessalonikis
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Marko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Larisa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Atromitos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Kifisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Volos NFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | PAOK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Panserraikos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Marko | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ellas Syros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Panionios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Niki Volos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 | Panthrakikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Apollon Pontou | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Panetolikos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Kallithea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Pyrgos 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Trikala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 28 | Zakynthos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.