Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.62 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Asteras Tripolis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Asteras Tripolis win

60.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.56 – 0.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Asteras Tripolis home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Levadiakos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Asteras Tripolis win60%

Draw25%

Levadiakos win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
2–013.7%
0–011.3%
1–110.9%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Asteras Tripolis

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 0-2 (L)

Levadiakos

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Levadiakos (Cup)
2026-02-01T14:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-3 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2025-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Levadiakos (Cup)
2025-01-19T14:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2024-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2023-04-08T16:30:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2023-01-15T15:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2022-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Levadiakos (Super League 1)
2021-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Levadiakos (Cup)

Super League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	6	5	0	1	9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	4	2	0	13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	4	1	1	3	13
4	PAOK	5	4	0	1	7	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	3	1	2	-4	10
6	OFI	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	2	3	1	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Kifisia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Kalamata	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Atromitos	6	0	2	4	-4	2
13	Levadiakos	6	0	1	5	-11	1
14	Volos NFC	6	0	2	4	-6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Asteras Tripolis win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.