· Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
Asti vs Millesimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Asti and 1.39 for Millesimo, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Millesimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Millesimo win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Asti home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Millesimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Asti and 1.39 for Millesimo, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Asti
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Millesimo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenzana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Imperia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gozzano · 2-0 (W)
Millesimo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Millesimo win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.