Estadio Deportivo ESPOL · Analysis updated 09:59 UTC
Astillero FC (Ecu) vs Universidad Catolica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Astillero FC (Ecu) and 2.10 for Universidad Catolica, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Universidad Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universidad Catolica win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Astillero FC (Ecu) home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad Catolica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universidad Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Astillero FC (Ecu) and 2.10 for Universidad Catolica, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Astillero FC (Ecu)
- 2026-09-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Daquilema FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guayaquil City FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs 22 de Julio · 2-1 (W)
Universidad Catolica
- 2026-10-23T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente del Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T20:00:00.000Z · Astillero FC (Ecu) 0-1 Universidad Catolica (Copa Ecuador)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universidad Catolica win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.