Villa Park · Referee Craig Pawson, England · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.25 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 50.1% vs market 40.3%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 50.1% | 2.00 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.6% | 64.8% | 1.54 | +2.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 37.2% | 37.5% | 2.67 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 35.5% | 35.1% | 2.85 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 62.4% | 1.60 | -2.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 49.9% | 2.00 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)
Brentford
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2025-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford (League Cup)
- 2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2025-03-08T17:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-0 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2024-12-04T20:15:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2023-12-17T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2023-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford (Premier League - Summer Series)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2022-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 4-0 Brentford (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.