Aston Villa vs Brighton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.53 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Aston Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aston Villa win43%

Draw23%

Brighton win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–18.8%
1–27.8%
1–06.7%
2–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aston Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Aston Villa and 1.53 for Brighton, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Aston Villa

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-4 (L)

Brighton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-11T19:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-12-03T19:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 4-3 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-04-02T18:45:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-0 Brighton (Premier League)
2024-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-2 Brighton (Premier League)
2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-09-30T11:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2022-12-08T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-2 Brighton (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-11-13T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2022-02-26T15:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.