Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.38 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Crystal Palace the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aston Villa home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Aston Villa win33%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–110.5%
1–09.1%
1–28.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Aston Villa

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)

Crystal Palace

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-07T19:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-04-26T16:15:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace (FA Cup)
2025-02-25T19:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-4 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace (League Cup)
2024-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-5 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-03-04T15:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2022-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-3 Crystal Palace (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.