Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.65 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Newcastle win

47.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aston Villa home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Aston Villa win28%

Draw24%

Newcastle win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–19.5%
1–29.4%
0–27.9%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Aston Villa

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-14T17:45:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (FA Cup)
2026-01-25T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-01-30T20:15:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-08-12T16:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-5 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-3 Newcastle (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-04-15T11:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 3-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Newcastle win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.