Villa Park · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Aston Villa and 4.00 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 15% / 13% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Aston Villa and 4.00 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–35.3%
- 1–45.3%
- 2–35.3%
- 2–45.3%
- 1–54.2%
Recent form
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.