Villa Park · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.03 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Aston Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aston Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Aston Villa and 1.03 for Tottenham, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)
Tottenham
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2026-01-10T17:45:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham (FA Cup)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-05-16T18:30:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-02-09T17:35:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham (FA Cup)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 1-4 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-01-01T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.