Poundland Bescot Stadium · Referee A. Soneye · Analysis updated 19:12 UTC
Aston Villa W vs Bristol Rovers W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Aston Villa W and 1.64 for Bristol Rovers W, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Aston Villa W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bristol Rovers W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aston Villa W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Aston Villa W and 1.64 for Bristol Rovers W, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
Aston Villa W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-1 (D)
Bristol Rovers W
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham W · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haringey Borough W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-01-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 0-9 (L)
- 2024-12-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United W · 3-2 (W)
- 2024-11-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Marine Academy Plymouth · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.