Trevor Brown Memorial Ground · Referee Abigail Byrne · Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Aston Villa W and 2.25 for Crystal Palace W, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Crystal Palace W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crystal Palace W win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crystal Palace W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Aston Villa W and 2.25 for Crystal Palace W, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Aston Villa W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 3-1 (W)
Crystal Palace W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa W 1-1 Crystal Palace W (FA WSL)
- 2025-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa W 1-3 Crystal Palace W (FA WSL)
- 2024-11-17T14:00:00.000Z · Aston Villa W 3-2 Crystal Palace W (FA WSL)
- 2024-10-02T18:15:00.000Z · Aston Villa W 2-0 Crystal Palace W (WSL Cup)
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Manchester United W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Aston Villa W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Liverpool W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Birmingham City W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | West Ham W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace W win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.