· Analysis updated 21:56 UTC
Åstorp vs Jonsered Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Åstorp and 1.60 for Jonsered, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Jonsered the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jonsered away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonsered to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Åstorp and 1.60 for Jonsered, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Åstorp
Jonsered
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Åstorp · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Qviding FIF · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Lindome | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Västra Frölunda | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 7 | Böljan | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 34 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Onsala | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Torslanda | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.