· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Åstorp vs Västra Frölunda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Åstorp and 1.76 for Västra Frölunda, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Västra Frölunda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Västra Frölunda win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Åstorp home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Västra Frölunda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Västra Frölunda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Åstorp and 1.76 for Västra Frölunda, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Åstorp
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongahälla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 1-1 (D)
Västra Frölunda
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Åstorp · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galtabacks · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Onsala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Lindome | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Västra Frölunda | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 7 | Böljan | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 34 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Onsala | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Torslanda | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Västra Frölunda win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.