· Analysis updated 12:40 UTC
Astrio vs Böljan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Astrio and 1.89 for Böljan, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Böljan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Astrio home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Böljan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Böljan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Astrio and 1.89 for Böljan, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.77 | 52.4% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.85 | 32.0% | 33.2% | 3.01 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 65.6% | 66.8% | 1.50 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.85 | 31.8% | 32.1% | 3.12 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 44.5% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.90 | 31.9% | 32.1% | 3.12 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 77.8% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 68.1% | 67.9% | 1.47 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 68.2% | 67.9% | 1.47 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.4% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.95 | 47.6% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 1.81 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Astrio
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Landvetter IS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Västra Frölunda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Galtabacks · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Onsala · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongahälla · 1-5 (L)
Böljan
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongahälla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonsered · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landvetter IS · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · Astrio 0-1 Böljan (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · Astrio 1-3 Böljan (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2025-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · Astrio 2-3 Böljan (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2025-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Astrio 6-2 Böljan (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 60 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 52 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Västra Frölunda | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Qviding FIF | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Böljan | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lindome | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 9 | Torslanda | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Onsala | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Astrio | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -40 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.