ASV Neumarkt vs Ammerthal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for ASV Neumarkt and 1.68 for Ammerthal, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Ammerthal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Ammerthal win

51.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ASV Neumarkt home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ammerthal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ASV Neumarkt win24%

Draw24%

Ammerthal win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.7%
1–29.6%
0–29.0%
1–06.9%

Recent form

ASV Neumarkt

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)

Ammerthal

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-15T16:30:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 0-1 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 3-0 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 2-0 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2024-02-24T13:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 2-1 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-08-19T15:30:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 3-3 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2023-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 2-0 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
2022-08-12T16:30:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 1-2 Ammerthal (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
3	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
4	Würzburger FV	15	8	4	3	9	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	15	7	5	3	11	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	15	6	4	5	9	22
10	Stadeln	15	5	6	4	-3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
13	Großbardorf	15	5	1	9	-8	16
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
17	Nordlingen	15	2	5	8	-17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ammerthal win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.