· Analysis updated 23:06 UTC
ASV Neumarkt vs Eintracht Bamberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for ASV Neumarkt and 1.53 for Eintracht Bamberg, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Eintracht Bamberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eintracht Bamberg win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASV Neumarkt home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Bamberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eintracht Bamberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 16% / 26% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for ASV Neumarkt and 1.53 for Eintracht Bamberg, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–213.2%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
ASV Neumarkt
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)
Eintracht Bamberg
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Großbardorf · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 1-1 Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-08-17T13:30:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 3-2 Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 5-5 Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2022-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · ASV Neumarkt 0-4 Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 43 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Bayern Hof | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 28 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Gebenbach | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Fortuna Regensburg | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 21 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Großbardorf | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 19 |
| 13 | Weiden | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Ammerthal | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Nordlingen | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 14 |
| 17 | Ingolstadt II | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eintracht Bamberg win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.