· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
ASV Neumarkt vs Weiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for ASV Neumarkt and 1.13 for Weiden, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives ASV Neumarkt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ASV Neumarkt win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASV Neumarkt home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Weiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASV Neumarkt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for ASV Neumarkt and 1.13 for Weiden, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
ASV Neumarkt
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)
Weiden
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 43 |
| 2 | Bayern Hof | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 3 | Eintracht Bamberg | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Würzburger FV | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Gebenbach | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Fortuna Regensburg | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 21 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Weiden | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Großbardorf | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 16 |
| 14 | Ammerthal | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Ingolstadt II | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ASV Neumarkt win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.