Asyut University Stadium · Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Asyut Petrol vs Masr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Asyut Petrol and 0.83 for Masr, a combined total of 1.66. That distribution gives Masr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Masr away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 32% / 35% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Asyut Petrol and 0.83 for Masr, a combined 1.66 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.1%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–015.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Asyut Petrol
Masr
- 2026-10-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic El Qanah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs ASAS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Enppi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ASAS · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.