· Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Atenas vs Cerrito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Atenas and 0.98 for Cerrito, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Atenas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atenas win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atenas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cerrito away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atenas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Atenas and 0.98 for Cerrito, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Atenas
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuarembo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Colonia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs La Luz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerrito · 0-0 (D)
Cerrito
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Miramar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuarembo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Wanderers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Colonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs La Luz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Atenas | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 41 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Colón | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 36 |
| 5 | CA River Plate | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Oriental | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Paysandu | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
| 9 | La Luz | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Fenix | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Miramar | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 12 | Sportivo Huracan | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Tacuarembo | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -9 | 25 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -13 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atenas win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.