Atenas vs Colón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Atenas and 1.28 for Colón, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Colón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atenas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Colón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Atenas and 1.28 for Colón, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atenas win32%

Draw28%

Colón win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.9%
1–010.2%
0–09.3%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Atenas

2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuarembo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Colonia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs La Luz · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerrito · 0-0 (D)

Colón

2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenix · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuarembo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Colonia · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs La Luz · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerrito · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oriental	6	4	1	1	3	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Fenix	6	3	2	1	6	11
4	Sportivo Huracan	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Colón	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	La Luz	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Miramar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Paysandu	6	1	1	4	-3	4
12	Atenas	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	-4	3
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	12	40
2	Rentistas	21	9	6	6	3	33
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	7	32
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	5	32
5	CA River Plate	21	8	6	7	5	30
6	Colón	21	8	6	7	-3	30
7	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	3	29
8	Fenix	21	7	8	6	3	29
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	-5	27
10	Sportivo Huracan	21	7	5	9	-6	26
11	Paysandu	21	7	4	10	-2	25
12	Miramar	21	6	7	8	-3	25
13	Tacuarembo	21	6	6	9	-7	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	-12	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.