Estadio 9 de Julio · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Atenas vs Juventud Unida Univ. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Atenas and 0.58 for Juventud Unida Univ., a combined total of 1.24. That distribution gives Atenas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 29%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atenas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juventud Unida Univ. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–029.0%
- 1–019.2%
- 0–116.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Atenas
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan Las Heras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-0 (W)
Juventud Unida Univ.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · Atenas 0-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-17T18:30:00.000Z · Atenas 1-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-12T19:30:00.000Z · Atenas 1-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-12T18:45:00.000Z · Atenas 0-1 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-10-04T23:30:00.000Z · Atenas 0-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · Atenas 0-3 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · Atenas 2-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · Atenas 4-1 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · Atenas 0-4 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-07-04T00:00:00.000Z · Atenas 0-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.