Estadio 9 de Julio · Analysis updated 03:08 UTC
Atenas vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Atenas and 0.90 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.5% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atenas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 29% / 35% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Atenas and 0.90 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.2%
- 0–117.3%
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Atenas
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan Las Heras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-0 (W)
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.