Estadio 9 de Julio · Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Atenas vs Villa Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Atenas and 1.05 for Villa Mitre, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Villa Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atenas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villa Mitre away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villa Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 27% / 32% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Atenas and 1.05 for Villa Mitre, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–28.7%
Recent form
Atenas
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan Las Heras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvarado · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-0 (W)
Villa Mitre
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:45:00.000Z · Atenas 0-1 Villa Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-02T19:30:00.000Z · Atenas 1-0 Villa Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.