Lezama Facilities · Referee M. Marco · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Athletic Club II and 0.84 for Real Avilés, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Athletic Club II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletic Club II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Avilés away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Athletic Club II and 0.84 for Real Avilés, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 61.0% vs market 47.0%, edge +14.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.0% | 61.0% | 1.64 | +14.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.0% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.0% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 42.8% | 43.2% | 2.31 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.2% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 27.0% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 39.0% | 2.56 | -14.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Athletic Club II
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 2-1 (W)
Real Avilés
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.