San Mamés Stadium · Referee Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain · Analysis updated 10:06 UTC
Athletic Club vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.79 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletic Club home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 56.3% vs market 48.4%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.4% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 56.5% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.9% | 24.8% | 4.03 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.6% | 18.3% | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.2% | 1.33 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.3% | 81.7% | 1.22 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.6% | 43.7% | 2.29 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
Alaves
- 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 4-2 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2025-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2025-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2024-12-15T15:15:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-1 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2024-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2024-01-16T20:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves (Copa del Rey)
- 2023-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves (La Liga)
- 2022-08-06T09:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-1 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.